Storm Prediction Center Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Page (2024)

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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 21, 2024
Updated:Tue May 21 09:07:03 UTC 2024
Storm Prediction Center Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Page (5)
Storm Prediction Center Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Page (6)
Storm Prediction Center Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Page (7)
15%73,0839,340,526Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
Storm Prediction Center Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Page (8)
15%142,82313,367,455Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Louisville, KY...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Little Rock, AR...
Storm Prediction Center Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Page (9)
Storm Prediction Center Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Page (10)
D4Fri, May 24, 2024 - Sat, May 25, 2024 D7Mon, May 27, 2024 - Tue, May 28, 2024
D5Sat, May 25, 2024 - Sun, May 26, 2024 D8Tue, May 28, 2024 - Wed, May 29, 2024
D6Sun, May 26, 2024 - Mon, May 27, 2024 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.

Forecast Discussion

 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210904 SPC AC 210904 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Fri - Mid MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes vicinity... An upper shortwave trough over the northern Plains will pivot northeast across the Upper Midwest on Friday. At the surface, low pressure will develop northward across MN/WI and a trailing cold front will push east, becoming positioned from WI to central OK/MO by Saturday morning. Some severe potential is possible ahead of the front from the Mid-MS Valley into the Great Lakes vicinity. However, ongoing convection early Friday and large-scale ascent lifting northeast of the region with time is resulting in uncertainty. Severe probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details become better resolved, but confidence is too low to delineate an unconditional 15 percent probability at this time. ...Day 5/Sat - Southern Plains to the Ozarks vicinity... Low-amplitude west/southwest mid/upper flow is forecast across the southern Plains to the Mid-South vicinity for much of the diurnal period on Saturday. By 00z, forecast guidance suggests a shortwave trough will eject from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains, and eventually impinging on the Ozarks/Mid-South area by Sunday morning. A very moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the southern Plains vicinity ahead of this feature as a surface warm front lifts northward through the day. Increasing ascent may not arrive until after 00-03z, limiting convective initiation until the nighttime hours. If storms can develop during the day across portions of OK/TX, all hazards severe potential will exist. Otherwise, thunderstorm potential may be more likely during the evening/overnight from north TX into southeast OK and AR as large-scale ascent increases and a 65-75 kt 500 mb jet overspreads the region. The north and west bounds of severe potential are a bit uncertain, so this area may shift in subsequent outlooks. ...Day 6/Sun - Ozarks to the Lower OH and TN Valleys... An upper shortwave trough will progress across the region on Sunday. Forecast guidance depicts a 50-60 kt southwesterly 700 mb jet overspreading the region during the day. Meanwhile, a surface low will intensify over MO/IL, shifting northeast along the OH River through the period. A very moist and unstable airmass is depicted ahead of the low and attendant south/southeastward-progressing cold front. Intense severe thunderstorms will likely accompany this system. Consistency among deterministic guidance, favorable synoptic pattern, as well as CSU/NSSL ML output, support introduction of 15 percent probabilities for Sunday. ...Days 7-8/Mon-Tue... Spread among forecast guidance increases substantially by the end of the forecast period. However, a pattern shift by Day 8/Tue appears possible, with an amplified upper ridge potentially building over the western half of the CONUS. Overall, predictability is too low to delineate areas of severe potential across the eastern half of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 05/21/2024 CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified:May 21, 2024
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Storm Prediction Center Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Page (2024)


What is a severe weather outlook? ›

Public Severe Weather Outlooks

The Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO) is issued on Day 1 for all category 5-HIGH-magenta risks and 4-MDT-red risks that are driven by tornadoes and/or damaging winds.

What does the severe weather outlook chart depict? ›

Description: This product depicts the area where the forecaster expects convection or severe convection to occur during the first 24-hour period. The product denotes the areas that have a marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate, or high risk of severe thunderstorms during the period.

How to predict a severe thunderstorm? ›

Satellites are critical in short-term forecasting. Satellite images can give an early indication of a developing thunderstorm by showing where cumulus clouds are forming. Cumulus clouds grow rapidly into cumulonimbus clouds if conditions are right, and you can track their growth using satellite images.

What is a outlook mean in weather? ›

Outlook. A broad discussion of the weather pattern expected across any given area, generally confined to forecast periods beyond 48 hours.

When was the last EF5 tornado? ›

The nation's last EF-5 tornado struck Moore, Oklahoma, on May 20, 2013.

Is a 5% tornado risk high? ›

Minimum Action: Preparations should be made for a low likelihood (or a 5 to 14% probability) of tornadoes; scattered tornadoes of F0 to F1 intensity possible.

What is the 30 30 thunderstorm rule? ›

Remember the 30/30 lightning safety rule: Go indoors if, after seeing lightning, you cannot count to 30 before hearing thunder. Stay indoors 30 minutes after hearing the last clap of thunder.

How to tell if a storm is coming? ›

Look for changes such as:
  1. Large, puffy cumulus clouds.
  2. Darkening sky and clouds.
  3. Abrupt changes in wind direction.
  4. Sudden drop in temperature.
  5. Drop in atmospheric pressure.

Which state has the most thunderstorms? ›

The average number of thunderstorm days each year throughout the U.S. Courtesy of the National Weather Service. Virtually all summer rainstorms are accompanied by thunder and lightning. No other part of the nation has more thunderstorm activity than Florida.

How accurate is the weather Outlook? ›

Today the accuracy is around 97%. The biggest improvements we've seen are for longer timeframes. By the early 2000s, 5-day forecasts were “highly accurate” and 7-day forecasts are reaching that threshold today. 10-day forecasts aren't quite there yet but are getting better.

What is difference between Outlook and forecast? ›

'Forecast' is also a verb: Storms are forecast for tomorrow. Oil prices are forecast to drop this year. Outlook is a useful word in this area. It means 'the likely future situation': The political outlook is still uncertain.

What does 100% weather mean? ›

When you see a "100% chance of rain," it doesn't mean it's going to pour everywhere, all the time. Think of it like this: the forecasters are super confident that rain will fall somewhere within a certain area, but they're not sure exactly where or for how long.

What is the definition of severe weather? ›

A thunderstorm is classified as “severe” when it contains one or more of the following: hail one inch or greater, winds gusting in excess of 50 knots (57.5 mph), or a tornado.

What are the types of weather outlook? ›

Weather forecasting is predicting atmospheric conditions of the atmosphere for a given location. There are four types of forecasts: short-range (12-48 hours), medium-range (3-7 days), long-range (8 days +), and hazardous/severe weather forecasts.

What is an example of a severe weather event? ›

Weather-related extreme events are often short-lived and include heat waves, freezes, heavy downpours, tornadoes, tropical cyclones and floods.

What is a severe weather emergency? ›

Severe weather emergencies include: blizzard, flood, hail, lightning, natural disaster, snow, thunderstorm, and tornado. This is not intended as an exhaustive listing, but provides overall guidance that can be extended to any weather emergency or natural disaster.

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